Rates On Hold Amid Trade Uncertainty
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By Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The euro zone economy has remained resilient to the pervasive uncertainty caused by a global trade war, a slew of data showed on Friday, even as European Central Bank policymakers appeared to temper market bets on no more rate cuts.
2025 inflation seen at 2.0% vs. previous 2.2%; 2026 revised to 1.8% from 2.0%. 2025 GDP growth seen at 1.1% vs. 0.9%, 2026 at 1.1% vs 1.2% Euro zone companies report slowdown in activity and China competition. Tariffs to have 0.06% downward impact on inflation in both 2025 and 2026, broadly neutral on balance in 2027.
There’s little reason for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates further unless the economy suffers a major blow, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.
BNP Paribas economists are no longer calling for a 25 basis point cut from the European Central Bank in September following the press conference from ECB chief Christine Lagarde. BNP said Lagarde played down an undershooting of ECB staff inflation forecasts,
ECB holds rates at 2% amid trade tensions and flat growth outlook, signaling cautious optimism and policy flexibility.
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the euro zone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing even while U.
While annual inflation in the euro area hit the central bank's 2% target last month, traders widely expected a hold in July — in large part due to geopolitical volatility. The U.S. is the EU's biggest bilateral trade and investment partner and the 27-member bloc exported 503 billion euros ($590 billion) in goods to the States last year.