China and the United States start their first major Trade War Two meeting on Saturday to pull back from what analysts describe as a lose-lose situation for their economies, without much clarity on what a win would look like for either side.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.