The annual benchmark payrolls revisions revealed that the labor market has been weaker for longer than initially reported. The probability that a crack in consumption is just around the corner is much ...

One of our key views is that 2026 is unlikely to deliver a repeat of the explosive equity gains seen in 2025, and instead, the rally will broaden and become more inclusive. Last year, performance was ...

Artem Sakhbiev is a Strategist for BCA’s Foreign Exchange service, where he develops currency models and translates the firm’s macroeconomic and geopolitical views into actionable, market-relevant ...

The October FOMC minutes underscored deep divisions over the Fed’s next move, reinforcing expectations for a December hold but keeping the easing bias intact. The 10–2 vote for a 25 bps cut included ...

The first week of January is always the most difficult for investment strategists. The annual outlook is usually penned in early December. Ours went to your inbox on December 2, perhaps too early to ...

Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held ...

Much like the 2000 episode, we expect this year to unfold in two stages: A “Great Rotation” from tech stocks to non-tech names in the first half of 2026 followed by a broad-based selloff in stocks in ...

Our annual "black swan" report is different this year. Usually we focus on low-probability, high-impact risks not under discussion in the global news media. This year we feel the need to address the ...

Our FX strategists expect the US dollar to remain the backbone of the global financial system, even as its reserve-currency premium gradually erodes. The dollar’s entrenched role in global markets ...

For a man obsessed with name-calling, the President of the United States might wonder whether there could be a permanent association between the words Trump and slump.Unfortunately for him, the answer ...

The New World Order Premium Yesterday’s market action was reminiscent of last April when US tariff announcements sent the stock market tumbling alongside rising bond yields and a weaker dollar. At the ...

Favor curve steepeners and gold as recent price action highlights rising term premia and diversification away from US assets. With markets closed on Monday for the MLK holiday, Tuesday’s session saw ...