Learn to apply Bayes' theorem in financial forecasting for insightful, updated predictions. Enhance decision-making with ...

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to ...

The problem of estimating the variance of the ratio estimator in sampling with probability proportional to aggregate size is investigated. The form of nonnegative unbiased variance estimators is found ...

For unequal probability sampling designs, design-based variance estimation is cumbersome because it requires second-order inclusion probabilities. For most fixed sample size probability ...