As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book, cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

The Treasury curve was down 1 basis point at 2 years and was up 5 basis points at 10 years over the last week. As a result, the current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread narrowed to negative 29 ...