The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are traveling to Switzerland to meet Beijing’s lead economic representative, potentially paving the way for broader trade talks.